Pueblo West, Colorado 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

186
FXUS65 KPUB 112328
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
528 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend back to above seasonal temperatures through the
  end of the work week.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers/weak thunderstorms
  over and near the higher terrain through the middle of week.

- Uptick in coverage of daily storms for the end of the work
  week into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has modest
north to northwest flow aloft across the region, with the tail
end of passing short wave translating across the northern High
Plains at this time. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary
is moving across eastern Colorado helping to develop a few showers
along and south of the Palmer Dvd, with regional radars also
indicating a few thunderstorms across the southeast mountains
into the the southern I-25 Corridor at this time.

For tonight, latest SPC meso-analyis is indicating 1000-2000 j/kg
of SBCape along the eastern mtns into the I-25 Corridor, greatest
south of Highway 50, where latest cams keep the best coverage
of showers and storms through the late afternoon. With very little
in the way of shear, storms could produce brief periods of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall, as well as gusty winds to 45 mph and small
hail before waning through the early evening hours. Clearing skies
overnight will allow for temperatures to cool to at and slightly
below seasonal levels in the 50s across the plains, and mainly in
the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...Models in good agreement of keeping modest
north to northwest flow aloft across the Rockies, as upper level
ridging across the Great Basin remains progged to slide south and
east as more eastern Pacific energy moves onshore across the Pacific
Northwest Coast. Latest models do indicate a slight uptick in
available moisture across western Colorado, leading to isolated
to scattered showers and storms over and near the higher terrain
Tuesday afternoon, with storms waning through the early evening
once again. Further east, subsidence and warming aloft will help
keep deep moist convection at bay on Tuesday. Temperatures tomorrow
warm to around seasonal levels in the 80s to low 90s across the
plains, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain
and into the 80s across the high mountain valleys. Around seasonal
lows remain in the forecast for tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Upper level high pressure gradually expands from the desert sw
into the srn Rockies Wed-Thu, bringing back hot temperatures
and suppressing most convection across the area. Still just
enough recycled moisture around for some weak/short-lived storms
over the mountains each day, though again blended model
guidance looks rather overdone with pops through the period
compared to most 11/00z data, and thus cut back chances somewhat
through the period. QPF amounts look light Wed-Thu, just a few
hundredths at most with bulk of the storm activity. Temps will
climb to above average levels Wed/Thu as ridge builds. Could
see a return of near 100f readings across the lower Ark Valley,
especially on Thu as mid- level temps peak.

Ridge shifts far enough east that modest return of low/mid level
moisture develops starting Fri, persisting into the weekend. As
a result, most locations should see increased chances for
convection each day, with the best chance for storms over the
high terrain along and west of I-25. With greater moisture and
cloud cover, expect max temps to drift down slightly each day,
though readings will still be at to a little above average as
any cooling will be minor.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected across the TAF sites
this forecast period. While showers and thunderstorms are not
anticipated for the remainder of the evening, outflow boundaries
from storms to the east will support more of an east northeast
direction at the start of the period for COS and PUB before
becoming more light and variable later this evening. Winds then
pick out of the south to southeast Tuesday morning. Similar
trends are likely at ALS this evening, and again Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ